The best-positioned industries are those tied to structural demand, committed funding, or high-income/AI-driven spending. Oxford Economics expects the AI boost to continue through heavy infrastructure investment in data centers, hardware, and tech-sensitive industries, although GDP contribution from AI spending may be smaller in 2026 than before.⁴ Financial Modeling Institute (FMI) is more direct for construction: data centers are driving office-category growth, power construction is expanding with electricity demand, and water/wastewater is supported by WIFIA, federal water infrastructure financing, PFAS compliance, and industrial demand.⁵

Healthcare also remains comparatively resilient. Moody’s Analytics notes that healthcare has been almost the only major industry still adding significantly to payrolls in a slowing labor market.⁶ FMI forecasts healthcare construction spending to grow modestly, supported by large hospital systems, specialty investment, operational upgrades, and demographic demand.⁵ In a K-shaped economy, healthcare benefits from non-discretionary demand and aging demographics, even though financing and equipment costs remain headwinds.

The challenged sectors are rate-sensitive, overbuilt, discretionary, or exposed to lower-income consumer stress. That means that declines can be expected in lodging, commercial, public safety, manufacturing, single-family, multifamily, and residential improvements, while traditional office remains sharply weaker once data centers are excluded.⁷ The view that consumer spending is tiring under inflation and energy costs reinforce pressure on discretionary retail, restaurants, leisure, and other categories tied to lower and middle-income households.³

Small businesses and lower-margin firms face a tougher operating environment than large firms. Small business struggles serve as one face of the fragmented economy, as tariff pass-through is likely to increase as firms with slim margins can no longer absorb costs.⁶ This favors firms with pricing power, access to capital, productivity gains, and exposure to essential or structurally growing demand, while punishing firms dependent on cheap credit, low input costs, or broad-based discretionary consumption.⁴

The result is an economy where industry performance is increasingly uneven. Sectors backed by stable demand, committed funding, and productivity investment are better positioned to keep moving, while those reliant on broad-based consumer strength, cheaper credit or lower input costs will remain more exposed to downside risk.