Q3

2025

The Look
Ahead

The U.S. economy remains uneven as growth and spending hold steady amid a softening labor market and persistent inflation.

Play Video

Steady Growth Amid Shifting Momentum

National Market Overview

The U.S. economy continues to show a K-shaped pattern, with growth and spending improving even as other indicators soften. Gross domestic product (GDP) and consumer spending remain steady, but the labor market has lost momentum, consumer sentiment is downbeat, and inflation remains elevated. Artificial intelligence (AI) has likely played an outsized role in sustaining growth, with gains in equity markets creating a wealth effect concentrated among higher-income households. The top ten percent of consumers now account for roughly half of all spending, supporting near-term growth but contributing to a more fragile economic balance overall.

In the construction sector, costs are rising at a historical average rate of 0.73% nationally, down slightly from 0.8% in the second quarter. While price pressures are expected to persist, softer demand and margin compression have helped limit escalation at the project level. Fewer trades are reporting material price increases, and backlogs are beginning to stabilize.

Looking ahead, a gradual easing of rate policy and reduced uncertainty are expected to strengthen business and consumer confidence. Combined with steady demand, these factors point to a more optimistic outlook for 2026 compared to 2025.

Construction
Indicators

Construction activity is steady and pricing has stabilized, indicating the market is settling into a more balanced phase.

That leaves us with something of a puzzle: modest GDP and a resilient consumer coexisting with a collapsing job-growth figure. How do we reconcile these conflicting data points? Two primary factors are at work: demand and supply changes in the labor market and a shifting consumer spending demographic.

Will Roberson
Economist

An Economy in Contrast: Strong Output and Slowing Job Market

This report examines the unusual economic trends shaping 2025 – where steady consumer spending and growth contrast sharply with a cooling labor market. By analyzing the core drivers of GDP, our economist breaks down the forces behind these mixed signals and what they could mean for the outlook through 2026.  

Local Market Overviews

Stay informed with what is happening in your local market. Download your localized report now!

Ready to Work With Us?
contact us

Subscribe Now

Fill out the form to receive The Look Ahead, JE Dunn’s quarterly economic report.

Disclaimer & Privacy Statement

By submitting this information to JE Dunn Construction Company, you and your company represent and warrant that (i) the information you are submitting is true and accurate at the time of the submission; (ii) you are an authorized representative of your company who has the proper access and authority to provide this information, make these representations and bind your company.

JE Dunn Construction Company reserves the right to reject this information, reject your company as a potential bidder and terminate any contract or commitment without notice to you or your company if: (i) the information provided by you or another company agent is false, inaccurate, incomplete, unreliable, misleading or otherwise secretive; or (ii) you have failed to maintain, update and keep your company information true, current, complete, accurate and reliable.

In addition to any other rights, you acknowledge that any violation of the above representations will constitute an intentional or negligent misrepresentation. You also acknowledge that JE Dunn Construction Company will rely on the information provided by you to its detriment and that you and your company shall be responsible and liable for any damage or injury sustained by JE Dunn Construction Company in reliance upon such information.

Privacy and Confidentiality: JE Dunn Construction Company, its subsidiaries and related companies (“JE Dunn”) recognize and respect the privacy of the users of its Prequalification System (“System”). The information provided to the System will be considered confidential and used solely by JE Dunn Construction Company to evaluate the financial stability, resources, experience and other qualifications of your company to deliver high-quality goods and services at all times and/or according to the contractual requirements of a given project. Information provided in the Financial section of the System will be made available to only designated JE Dunn Construction Company Risk Management/Finance employees and will not be available to any other JE Dunn Construction Company employee.

JE Dunn Construction Company will store and restrict disclosure of your company information as allowed or required by applicable law, including disclosures that are necessary or advisable to (a) protect the rights, safety or property of JE Dunn Construction Company or others and (b) that conform to legal or regulatory requirements. Without your express approval, however, JE Dunn Construction Company will not knowingly disclose your company information to anyone outside of JE Dunn Construction Company.

No data was found
No data was found